JUNE 3, 2015
Poll: Babeu the early favorite in congressional race
Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns
SCOTTSDALE – Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu claims a strong lead among Republicans in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District according to a poll conducted by consultant and pollster Mike Noble.
In a survey of 687 likely Republican primary voters, 17.3 percent say they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow. Former State House Speaker Andy Tobin trails Babeu with 10.1 percent followed by businessman Gary Kiehne at 7.5 percent.
With no announced Republican candidate in the race, 64.9 percent of respondents say they are undecided.
“If he were to run, Sheriff Paul Babeu would be a formidable candidate, both in the primary and general elections,” said MBQF principal Mike Noble. “He has a proven ability to raise money from a donor base that extends far beyond Arizona’s borders, high name ID, regularly on national news and voters appreciate his ongoing efforts against the Mexican drug cartels, against human trafficking, against illegal immigration, and as a leading advocate for job creation and balanced budgets in Pinal County and across Arizona.”
“Less than a year ago Tobin and Kiehne spent over two million dollars and campaigned aggressively in CD-1 and if you combine their numbers they would merely tie Sheriff Paul Babeu.” Noble added.
The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2016 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. One-fourth of voters (25.4 percent) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 25.7 percent said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues that would ultimately determine how they voted.
Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant third among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 12.3 percent. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 10.4 percent of respondents as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 5.9 percent of respondents. And 8.0 percent said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue that would determine their vote next year. Just 11.9 percent said they were undecided or didn’t know.
Methodology: This automated survey was completed by MBQF Consulting on May 26, 2015, from a sample of likely Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 687 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.71
