PHOENIX – Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio leads a 4-way Republican Primary by 54% the day early voting begins and leads a potential General Election race by 5%, according to recent polls conducted by leading behavior research polling company, OH Predictive Insights.
In a survey of 484, likely Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Maricopa County based on projected 2016 Primary Election turnout, Joe Arpaio leads Dan Saban 67% to 13%. K. Wayne Baker and Marcia Hill each registered 2%.
| 2016 Maricopa County Primary Election | August 2, 2016 Results |
| Joe Arpaio | 67% |
| Dan Saban | 13% |
| K. Wayne Baker | 2% |
| Marcia Hill | 2% |
| Undecided | 16% |
In a survey of 348 likely General Election voters in Maricopa County based on projected 2016 General Election turnout, Joe Arpaio leads Democrat Paul Penzone 46% to 41%.
| 2016 Maricopa County General Election | August 3, 2016 Results |
| Joe Arpaio | 46% |
| Paul Penzone | 41% |
| Undecided | 13% |
“Joe Arpaio is crushing his primary opponents in the race for the Republican nomination for Maricopa County Sheriff. Republican Primary voters overwhelmingly support Sheriff Arpaio.” Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights and chief pollster, said. “In the General Election Sheriff Arpaio has a 5% lead over the candidate he defeated 4 years ago. The General looks to be a close race up until the final votes are counted.”
Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on August 2 & 3, 2016, from a 2016 likely GOP primary election sample and 2016 general election sample. General election poll was weighted to reflect likely general election turnout. The sample size was 484 completed surveys for the primary and 348 completed surveys for the general, with a MoE of ± 4.45% for Primary and a MOE of ± 5.25% for General.
