“The following commentary has been copied from the Cromford report for mid month pricing:”
Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.
For the monthly period ending June 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $297.69 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down almost $10, a huge 3.0% from the $307.04 we now measure for May 15. Our forecast range mid-point was $307.09. In hindsight the surge of $10 between April and May looks like an unnatural blip and it has all evaporated one month later. We did think our official forecast felt over-optimistic, and this proved prophetic. The actual result was well below our 90% confidence interval. So we conclude that pricing was much weaker than expected, the exact opposite of the previous month. The current light volumes mean prices are more volatile than usual. If only we had a larger sample size perhaps we would see more sustainable readings.
On June 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $330.94, down 0.4% from the reading for May 15. Among those pending listings we have 99.1% normal, 0.2% in REOs and 0.7% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This reflects the continued low level of foreclosure activity, with fewer than 1% of pending listings in some form of distress.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on July 15 is $296.49, which down 0.4% from the June 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $290.56 to $302.42.
In other words we are expecting stability in pricing with a slight tendency towards weakness.
My thoughts: this is great information overall. Remember that Real Estate is local. If you would like to know the market value of your home, call one of us from The MOHR Group, at 303-549-8224 Kendal, 480-204-2619 Ryan, and 602-980-7653 Janet
