April 13, 2016
CD1 Poll: Babeu Solidifies Lead in Crowded Field
Immigration, fiscal issues dominate voter concerns
PHOENIX — Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu asserts a strong lead among Republicans in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District according to a poll conducted by leading behavior research polling company, OH Predictive Insights.
In a survey of 387 likely Republican primary voters, 35.7 percent said they would vote to nominate Babeu if the primary were held tomorrow.
| AZ01-GOP Primary 2016 | March 30, 2016 Results |
|---|---|
| Paul Babeu | 35.7% |
| Gary Keihne | 8.8% |
| Ken Bennett | 8.5% |
| Wendy Rogers | 4.4% |
| David Gowan | 2.3% |
| Carlyle Begay | 2.1% |
| Shawn Redd | 1.0% |
| Unsure/Undecided | 37.2% |
“Sheriff Paul Babeu continues to dominate the crowded CD1 field,” Mike Noble, Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights, said. “Babeu also enjoys a staggering 76.4 percent Favorability rating, 11.6 percent Unfavorable and only 11.9 percent have no opinion of the sheriff among likely primary voting Republicans.”
Wes Gullett, Partner in OH Predictive Insights and GOP political consultant found it surprising that the race is not more competitive at this point. “We are only 118 days from the start of early voting and it is surprising that all the candidates but one are polling in the single digits. Most of these candidates have run for major office and to be stuck under 10% means they will need serious campaign funding to create urgent momentum,” Gullett said.
The poll, the first public survey of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona’s 1st District of the 2016 cycle, also found voters to be highly engaged on the issues. One fourth of voters (22.5 percent) said fiscal issues, such as taxes, the budget, jobs and unemployment, were the top issues by which they would decide their vote next year in the Republican congressional primary. Another 32.6 percent said immigration issues, including border security and amnesty for illegal aliens, were the top issues that would ultimately determine how they voted.
The next largest group, 14.2 percent, said defense issues (terrorism, military, veterans) were the single defining issue that would determine their vote next year. Values issues (protecting life and defending marriage) placed a distant fourth among likely primary voters as their top defining issue, selected by 8 percent of respondents. Health care issues such as Obamacare and Medicare/Medicaid were picked by 5.7 percent of those surveyed as their top issue. Rights issues (guns, privacy, property) were selected by 7.8 percent of respondents. Just 9.3 percent said they were undecided or didn’t know.
Methodology: This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on March 30, 2016, from a sample of likely Republican voters from CD-01 who first answered they were “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2016 congressional elections in Arizona. The sample size was 387 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.97
