PHOENIX – A brand new tool for monitoring the number of Arizona voters in real-time has been released by Secretary of State Michele Reagan. The Voter Stats Dashboard displays registration data allowing users to observe trends by party and county from 2007 to the most recent report.
The innovative tool aggregates statistical and demographic data of Arizona’s registered voters by county and forecasts future registration levels of partisan affiliation. The forecast is made to January 2021 and the time series is adjusted to consider yearly seasonality effects.
“No longer do people have to wait for each quarterly report to better understand the number of voters in Arizona,” said Secretary Reagan. “The number of active voters changes each day with people registering, moving or when our counties perform routine list maintenance. With this innovative dashboard people can better see what’s happening with the state’s electorate each day.”
The party forecasting function uses a basic time series algorithm called ARIMA. Widely available to the public, it is a moving average from quarter to quarter. Seasonality is a way for the algorithm to take into account patterns that may be found in the data based on outside events. In this case, the forecast takes into account the quarters of an election year which historically see an increase in registrations.
The Voter Stats Dashboard was developed by the Secretary of State’s Election Information Systems team and is hosted on her dedicated elections portal www.Arizona.Vote.